台风“摩羯”今登陆浙江 上海或有7至8级大风

中新网北京8月12日电 根据气象预报,今年第14号台风“摩羯”将于今晚在浙江象山到玉环一带沿海登陆,“摩羯”中心经过的附近海域或地区的风力有10-11级,阵风可达12-13级。受台风影响,12日夜里到13日上午,上海市的陆地东南风最大可达7-8级。

资料图。张亨伟 摄

“摩羯”将带来狂风暴雨 上海阵风或达8级

从7月下旬至今的不到一个月时间里,继台风“安比”“云雀”前后脚登陆上海后,华东地区又将迎来第3个台风。

根据中央气象台的预报,“摩羯”将于11日夜间移入东海东南部海面,强度逐渐加强,12日晚上在浙江象山到玉环一带沿海登陆后,将转向西北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。

受台风影响,11日20时至12日20时,江苏东南部沿海、上海沿海、长江口区、杭州湾、浙江沿海将有6-7级大风,阵风8-9级,“摩羯”中心经过的附近海域或地区的风力有10-11级,阵风可达12-13级。浙江东部、上海等地的部分地区有大雨或暴雨,局地有大暴雨或特大暴雨。

在上海,上海中心气象台11日20时发布台风蓝色预警信号,预计12日下午开始上海市偏东风力趋于增大,12日夜里到13日上午陆地东南风最大为7-8级,长江口区和沿江沿海地区9-10级。

此外,国家海洋预报台已经针对“摩羯”发布海浪黄色警报和风暴潮橙色警报,12-13日,东海、黄海南部将先后出现4到6米的巨浪到狂浪区,海况恶劣。12日凌晨到夜间,杭州湾到浙江温州沿海将出现60到150厘米的风暴增水,江苏省南部沿海将出现40到90厘米的风暴增水。

图片来源:中央气象台

“摩羯”的威力有多强?

7月下旬以来,“安比”、“云雀”、“摩羯”三个台风可谓接踵登陆华东地区。

气象专家分析,在台风强度和后续影响上,“摩羯”与前两个登陆江浙沪的台风颇为类似——登陆时强度不是很强,但一路北上深入内陆后风雨影响范围广,不可小觑。

中央气象台首席预报员许映龙分析,受东海较高海温、“摩羯”北侧高空流出气流加强的共同影响,“摩羯”可能出现近海加强,登陆时最强可达强热带风暴级别。

专家表示,11日晚上到14日,浙江、上海、江苏、安徽东部、山东等地有大雨或暴雨,局地大暴雨或特大暴雨。

“特别需要注意的是,14日至15日,‘摩羯’可能在豫皖鲁交界附近滞留,且有可能与冷空气‘相撞’,局地需防范强降水的不利影响。”许映龙说。

7月22日,今年第10号台风“安比”给沿海城市舟山也带来了影响,图为舟山嵊泗县的巨浪。 杨勋 摄

今年的台风为何偏爱江浙沪?

如上文所述,今年的登陆江浙沪的台风数量之多可谓罕见。

根据气象资料,从1949年至2017年8月底,登陆江浙沪地区的台风共有49个,平均每年只有不到1个。

再以上海为例,今年已有两个台风登陆上海,分别是7月22日登陆的“安比”和8月3日登陆的“云雀”。据气象记录,1949年至2017年,共有5个台风登陆上海,而今年不到半个月就已有两个台风接连登陆。

“台风如此密集登陆华东沿海,的确罕见。”许映龙解释,影响中国的台风大多数都生成于西北太平洋,在此区域生成的台风又大多产生于副热带高压(副高)的南缘,并沿着副高外围移动。当台风位于副高南侧时,会在南侧偏东气流引导下向西走。

许映龙说,今年7月初至8月上旬,副高如锅盖一般“盖”在中国华北、东北、黄淮等地上空,华东沿海地区处于其南侧边缘,这无形之中增加了江浙沪“中招”台风的几率。

“前两次登陆的台风‘安比’和‘云雀’,都是受此影响,可以说是顺着副高南侧边缘‘爬’到华东地区的。”许映龙分析,对于即将登陆的“摩羯”来说,目前副热带高压西进靠近中国大陆,华东沿海仍处于南侧边缘。正因如此,“摩羯”的登陆点也将“锁定”浙江。

资料图:8月3日,受台风“云雀”影响,扬州上空乌云密布。孟德龙 摄

江浙沪多地严阵以待防风防汛

针对“摩羯”的逼近,国家防总已在10日组织召开防汛抗旱会商会,对台风防御作出安排部署。

会后,国家防总向河北、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、山东省(直辖市)防汛抗旱指挥部,长江、淮河、海河、太湖防汛抗旱总指挥部发出通知,要求密切监视台风发展变化,加强预报预警,强化应急值守和会商分析,适时启动应急响应,切实做好船只回港避风、海上作业及近海养殖人员上岸避险等工作。

日前,中国气象局已经启动重大气象灾害(台风)四级应急响应,农业农村部也紧急部署台风“摩羯”防御工作,要求上海、江苏、浙江、安徽省(市)农业部门切实做好台风防御和灾后生产恢复工作,确保农业生产和人民生命财产安全。

浙江省防指10日18时启动防台风Ⅳ级应急响应,要求受影响地区各级各类防汛责任人坚守岗位,按预案和职责分工做好各项防汛防台工作。11日18时,浙江又将防台风应急响应提升为Ⅲ级。

上海市防汛指挥部办公室10日也已发出通知,要求上海全市切实做好台风防御工作,11日,上海市防汛指挥部启动全市防汛防台Ⅳ级响应行动。

此外,从10日晚间8时起,上海各水闸将停止引水,并按照预案要求,加强河闸联动,预降河道水位。各排水泵站加强设备维护,随时准备抢排雨水。(完)

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